Know Your Opponent

Money Game -- Black had been forced into playing an ace point game. Two rolls ago was able to hit a lone white blot and is now again on roll.

Cube Decision?

It is a No Double / Take. In fact, Black is barely a favorite at this point. There are very few rolls that cover the open 4-point and Black needs to consider using any of the threes he rolls to start extracting his rear checkers. Also against Black is the fact that once White gets in there are very few rolls that keep him back and/or open up another shot for Black on the ace point.

I was Black. However, in this case I knew my opponent very well and knew he was the kind of player to go on "tilt" rather easily. After he danced a second time I doubled, and he dropped without hesitation. The (27.7%) value next to the results show the percentage sure I have to be that he will drop to make this an effective double, regardless of what the "true" play is.

Part of what counts here too is that White cannot be gammoned. Even if we modify the position so White would have to enter on the ace point, it is still a No Double / Take -- though the decision is much closer now.